Murphy's Laws

Mike Murphy has a funny piece in Time on debate prep. (H/t Weekly Standard's Matthew Continetti)

My favorite bit:

Finally, the savvy viewer should remember that any moment that looks too perfect to be true probably isn't. I once worked on a campaign in which we made a big show of opening our secret debate-prep session to reporters. The highlight was the part when the candidate dramatically rejected the lame, scripted debate answers we staffers had offered up, vowing instead to just tell it like it was. We were very proud of our candidate; that was precisely the bit we had carefully rehearsed.

Bonus links (compiled by Time, not me):

Galllery of campaign gaffes here
10 Memorable Debate Moments
Top 10 campaign ads in U.S. political history here

Who Says All Politics Are Local?

I just realized I now know more about the politics in Wassila, AK than I do about my town of Falls Church, VA.

Dem Fundraiser: "It's Happening Again"

A major Democratic fundraiser described it a good bit more starkly after
digesting the polls of recent days: “I’m so depressed. It’s happening again.
It’s a nightmare.”

Politico piece. Check out this graf:

“The [Obama] campaign is beginning to look like other campaigns,” said a former top strategist for past Democratic presidential campaigns, who spoke on the condition of anonymity. “Obama is struggling with working-class whites just like John Kerry, Al Gore, Bill Clinton, Michael Dukakis did, and Walter Mondale. He’s struggling with voters in the border-state South. And he’s struggling with an enormous wind at his back, a hatred for George Bush and a mainstream media that is little short of a chorus for his campaign.”

Worst Ad I've Seen In a Long Time...

I was hoping the McCain campaign wouldn't go this route.

Can You Say "Backlash?"

MSNBC's Keith Olbermann and Chris Matthews are out as election anchors, to be replaced by David Gregory, according to the New York Times.

I love this bit:

NBC Universal executives are also known to be concerned about the perception that MSNBC’s partisan tilt in prime time is bleeding into the rest of the programming day. On a recent Friday afternoon, a graphic labeled “Breaking News” asked: “How many houses does Palin add to the Republican ticket?” [Phil Griffin, president of MSNBC] called the graphic “an embarrassment.”

via Drudge

Palin Debate Video

PrestoPundit has video of Palin debating her two general election opponents in the 2006 Alaskan gubernatorial election.

Note that you can use your left/right arrow keys to get to the good parts. She handles questions on rape/incest abortions and embryonic stem cell research with aplomb.

Via NRO Corner.

McCain-Palin: American Gothic

Didn't take long for something like this to show up! (original here).

One Thing I Wish Giuliani Had Said...

He really cut Obama down to size last night, making good use of Barack's many "Present" votes in the IL legislature. I thought for sure Rudy was setting up this line:

"So the choice is clear: "Present," or President."

Understatement of the Night

Chris Matthews on Sarah Palin's speech:

“At no time during her entire presentation, did I think of Hillary Clinton,” Matthews said. “They have nothing in common.”

Um, yeah, safe to say I wasn't thinking at all of Hillary Clinton during Sarah's speech. Not one bit.

That Reagan Video

The Reagan tribute video tonight at the GOP convention was... not as good as it could have been, or should have been, given its subject. I think the problem was the writing.

The "B movie actor" line was graceless. And the line summing up his accomplishments was clumsy and missed a great opportunity. The before/after construction was something like "when he took office, unemployment was up, inflation was up, and the Soviet Union was on the march. But by such and such a time, unemployment was down, inflation was down..." but then they forgot to add the clincher, "and by the end of the decade we witnessed something unthinkable to everyone but Ronald Reagan himself, and unthinkable without his leadership -- the fall of the Berlin Wall."

Susan Estrich on Sarah Palin

Don't know how significant this might be, but after Palin was unveiled (but before the pregnancy story), I saw Susan Estrich on FOX and thought this revelation was interesting (close paraphrase):

"I've heard from a lot women, and my email is split. There are of course lots of women saying Hillary supporters can't vote for a McCain-Palin ticket, she's anti-choice, we're not stupid enough to fall for this. But the other half is saying, listen, this is an impressive woman who worked her way up from the PTA, a working women balancing career and family, isn't this what we've been wanting to see this whole time?"

Most American Sentence Ever

From a George Will piece on political populism:

A story, perhaps apocryphal but certainly plausible, is that a child once began a school essay with this sentence: "Abraham Lincoln was born in a log cabin he built himself."

Mirror Image at the New Republic

The New Republic's Jonathan Chait's "quick response" to Sarah Palin's speech in Dayton:

It sort of seemed like one of those regular person testimonials where somebody gets up and talks about their family and their blue-collar job -- except then she says that she's on the ticket. Maybe it will help McCain connect with blue-collar voters. Maybe she'll come off as someone you can't possibly imagine as president. I don't know. It's really different.

I agree that we don't know how she will ultimately play (I'm very optimistic). But regarding his impression of Sarah Palin -- we really do live in different worlds. Right-wingers see Obama and think he's like some kind of motivational speaker (world-class, no doubt), or some Master of Feelings combination of Oprah and Deepak Choprah (hey, they rhyme) until he says "... and that's why I'm running for president."

In fact, "motivational speaker" seems to capture Obama's whole shtick; after all, motivational speakers don't actually accomplish things (other than generating their gig), they urge you to accomplish things. (Obama does have one big accomplishment: he beat the Clintons in a long and tough primary, despite having no accomplishments.)

Or we can use the game of basketball to illustrate the difference between Obama and Palin, since word has it they both got game. As the star point guard for her high school basketball team, Palin hit the free throw in the last seconds in the state championship to win the game. Obama's most famous shot was that beautiful three-pointer he hit at the military base while over in Europe. Except, it wasn't really worth three points, because it wasn't in an actual game. Just an awesome photo op.

(I wish I had, like, famous readers from the Left who could quote me out context and claim that I'm saying a good game of hoops qualifies you to be commander in chief. 'Cause that would be awesome.)

Obama Again Hesitates to Criticize Palin

It's interesting how Obama himself won't criticize Palin's experience. His surrogates are certainly taking their best shot at her, but Barry is of course in a bind on this one.

From Ben Smith's blog at Politico:

Asked at a press conference Saturday night to respond to McCain's argument that Palin has more executive experience than the Democratic ticket, Obama and Biden laughed. "I think you guys can take a look at Gov. Palin's record, Joe Biden's record and make your judgment in terms of who you think has what it takes to be an outstanding vice president," Obama said after a rally in Dublin, Ohio. "I feel confident about my choice."This was about as far as Obama would go, for a second day in a row, to cast a critical eye on Palin.

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McCain Sharpening His Attack

Barack Obama routinely reminds us how low an opinion he has of the US as an actor on the world stage. He apologizes for our conduct, feels "embarrassed" around Europeans, etc.

He hesitates to see the US as the "good guys" because "the danger of using good versus evil in the context of war is it may lead us to be not as critical as we should be about our own actions.”

Yes, send these guys into battle, where they lose life and limb, but for God's sake don't tell them that what they are sacrificing for is "good."

Why would we elect a President so ashamed of America? How did we get to the point in this country where one of our major parties nominates somebody who gets his panties in a bunch wrestling with the question of whether the US is the good guys or the bad guys?

And tell me again why we question his patriotism?

I am gratified to see John McCain sharpen his attack on Obama to make exactly this point. From an Aug. 26 AP story:

Republican John McCain on Tuesday questioned rival Barack Obama's belief in American leadership in world affairs with two days to go before the Democratic senator accepts his party's nomination for U.S. president.

McCain, 71, suggested Obama, 47, had failed to express confidence in America as "the greatest force for good on this earth" when he gave a speech in Berlin last month before more than 100,000 people.

"He was the picture of confidence. But in some ways confidence itself and confidence in one's country are not the same," McCain he told a group of American war veterans.

McCain, himself a war veteran imprisoned for more than five years in Vietnam, accused Obama of appearing to link the U.S.-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 to Russian military action in Georgia in recent weeks.Obama last week condemned Moscow's actions in Georgia and said Russia could not "charge into other countries" but he also said: "Of course it helps if we are leading by example on that point." His remarks were widely seen as a criticism of the war in Iraq, which Obama opposed. McCain used the comments to raise broader questions about Obama, suggesting he lacked the clarity and vision to lead America and the world. "If he really thinks that by liberating Iraq from a dangerous tyrant, America somehow set a bad example that invited Russia to invade a small, peaceful and democratic nation, then he should state it outright because that is a debate I welcome," McCain declared.

"Confusion about such questions only invites more trouble, violence and aggression," said McCain, who as a senator has specialized in defense and foreign affairs issues and has put national security at the center of his campaign.He and Obama are running neck-and-neck in opinion polls.

Ayers Makes 1st Appearance in .... Obama Ad?

This new Obama ad is terrible. Why would he raise Bill Ayers?

Newest McCain Ad

Here's McCain's latest ad, using Hillary's words against Obama, similar to the Biden piece they posted on Saturday.

I wasn't sure initially whether McCain's run-and-gun, wacky ads were going to be effective, but they seem to keep Barry on the defensive, so something must be working.

McCain has surprised me with his new message discipline and those crazy, risky "celebrity" ads -- in both cases, he is clearly deferring to good advice, rather than doing his unpredictable McCain-of-the-day jog through the China shop. If he ends up picking a guy he clearly hated in the primaries -- Romney -- rather than following his Liebermanesque impulses, we'll know that McCain is really playing to win.

McCain's Manager Has It Backwards

In remarks to some reporters, McCain's manager Rick Davis said:

"We've got to get the Republican Party excited about his candidacy," Davis said of McCain. "I think that’s one of the things that is probably more important for us to do than contrast with any of the Democrats. We have to show them that there’s a chance to succeed."

As I have previously argued, I think Davis has that exactly backwards. McCain should be drawing clear contrasts with Obama, and begin painting him as the left-winger he is. It is an article of faith among conservatives -- and it also happens to be true -- that when the GOP candidate runs an ideological campaign, touts unifying conservative ideas, and defines the Dem as a liberal, we win.

McCain will generate much more optimism and excitement among conservatives and the broader GOP coalition by clearly signaling that this will be his general election strategy. Show us right-wingers how he can win by taking on Obama/Hillary, and at least some of us will begin to get excited about his chances of beating the long odds in November.

McCain and Soros: Together At Last

Well, at least in the fevered mind of the Iranian Intelligence Ministry, which made a little video broadcast on Iranian television. As summarized by Jim Geraghty at NRO's Campaign Spot:

Courtesy of MEMRI, it was put together by the Iranian Intelligence Ministry, and was broadcast on Iranian television, encouraging Iranians to report spies. It features a computer-generated "John McCain" masterminding a Velvet Revolution in Iran from the White House.

... with help from George Soros and others. Gotta throw the Jewish banker in there just for the jew-hating fun of it.